Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
BY LATINO DECISIONS
October 10, 2012
In 2010, the average of 16 polls of likely voters in Nevada suggested Sharon Angle had a firm 3 point lead, and 538′s Nate Silver gave her an 83.4% chance of winning. On election night, the results showed Harry Reid with a 5 point win — an 8 point difference from the poll averages. Why the error? Almost every statewide poll in Nevada badly missed the Latino vote. In the final analysis, Reid won close to 90% of the Latino vote, and Latino turnout was much higher than anticipated.
New polling data out of Arizona released by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions suggests Arizona may be much closer than the polling averages indicate. A full 80% of Latinos say they plan to vote for Obama, compared to just 14% for Romney, and Latino enthusiasm is much, much higher in Arizona than the national average. In Latino Decisions national tracking poll 34% of Latinos say they are more excited about voting in 2012 while 36% say they were more excited back in 2008. In Arizona 60% are more enthusiastic in 2012 compared to just 16% who were more enthused in 2008. If Latino turnout is high in Arizona this year, it will be the Nevada of 2012 that takes the mainstream media by surprise. Full results of the Arizona Latino poll are posted here.
Democrats Bet on Shift in Hispanic Numbers to Win Arizona Race
BY FERNANDA SANTOS
October 6, 2012
The man who could be the first Latino to represent Arizona in the Senate, Richard H. Carmona, says he is not fooling himself. “I want to be realistic on the expectations,” he said last week at his office.
Mr. Carmona, 62, is an untested candidate of vast experiences with a made-for-Hollywood biography. He was a high school dropout, born into poverty in New York City to Puerto Rican parents who struggled with alcoholism and drug abuse. He served in Vietnam, earning Bronze Stars, Purple Hearts and other combat decorations, and attended medical school before his eventual rise to surgeon general under President George W. Bush.
He is running for public office for the first time, challenging a six-term congressman, Jeff Flake, 49, a Republican…. Mr. Carmona, a longtime independent, is running as a Democrat. That is not because the party is “a perfect fit,” he said, but because “I was forced to pick a position, and when I looked at where the Republicans were, especially in this state – immigration, women’s issues — I chose the Democratic Party.” Read more…
Arizona, Connecticut Contests Are Flipping the Script
BY ABBY LIVINGSTON
October 9, 2012
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is making TV reservations in Arizona to counter Richard Carmona’s strength: his biography.
The emergence of Arizona and Connecticut as competitive Senate battlegrounds has reinforced one of the most important themes of this cycle: In a neutral political environment, candidates matter more than ever.
Both open-seat races share similarities that extend beyond the fact that each party was favored to hold one seat until recently. The contests are the latest surprises on the 2012 Senate map, following the open seats in Indiana, North Dakota and Maine — all of which turned into more competitive contests than were originally expected. Read more…
Dem poll: Carmona up 4 over Flake
BY ALEXANDER BURNS
October 10, 2012
An internal poll for Senate Democrats shows former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona leading Republican Rep. Jeff Flake by 4 percentage points – a figure consistent with recent polling that has the candidates locked in a dead heat. Read more…
Arizona Senate candidate looks to turn seat from red to blue
HARDBALL – CHRIS MATTHEWS
Hardball: Ariz. Senate candidate looks to turn seat from red to blue
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Buenos Dias y Progreso en Arizona 